MLB Home Run Derby – Odds, First-Round Matchups and Picks for 2023

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Monday night time at T-Cellular Park in Seattle (8:00 p.m. ET), the MLB’s annual Residence Run Derby will happen, pitting eight of the league’s largest sluggers towards one another in a single-elimination bracket, utilizing the identical format the league adopted in 2015.

Two-time winner Pete Alonso of the New York Mets has been established because the betting favourite, despite the fact that the person who put an finish to his excellent Residence Run Derby document – Julio Rodriguez – will not be solely within the discipline, however slated to face Alonso in spherical one.

Odds to Win 2023 Residence Run Derby

Sitting simply behind Alonso within the odds to win the 2023 Residence Run Derby is Toronto’s Vlad Guerrero Jr. Whereas Vladdy has by no means captured the derby title, he did set the document for many homers in a single spherical (40) throughout his solely different look in 2019.

Chicago White Sox heart fielder Luis Robert Jr. (+500) is a stunning third-favorite, provided that that is his first time within the derby and he had by no means reached the 20-home plateau earlier than this 12 months (although that is largely attributable to accidents).

Seattle heart fielder and hometown favourite Rodriguez, who completed runner-up final 12 months as a rookie, is fourth at +550. Adolis Garcia of Texas rounds out the highest 5 at +650, whereas Tampa’s Randy Arozarena (+950), L.A. Dodgers’ Mookie Betts (+1000), and Baltimore’s Adley Rutschman (+1700) are thought of the longshots.

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Residence Run Derby First-Spherical Odds

The primary-round matchups function a pair of unusually lopsided odds for All-Star festivities. Not solely is Guerrero a -210 favourite over Betts, however Robert is -215 chalk towards Derby-newcomer Rutschman.

The narrowest odds are discovered within the Garcia vs. Arozarena matchup, the place Garcia is a slight -140 favourite.

As talked about, the matchup between Alonso and Rodriguez is a rematch from final 12 months’s second spherical. Alonso headed into to that matchup an ideal 7-0 lifetime in particular person Residence Run Derby rounds – profitable three rounds in 2019, three in 2021, and his first-round matchup in 2022. However Rodriguez – who was a rookie in each the derby and the Majors – routed Alonso 31-23 to advance to the ultimate, the place he fell 19-18 to Juan Soto.

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Residence Run Derby Picks

My favourite decide to win, given the percentages, is Rodriguez at +550. He has the hardest first-round matchup towards Alonso, nevertheless it’s a matchup he dominated final 12 months. Actually, he was the one participant to hit 30 homers in a single spherical in 2022, and he did it twice.

If this was a bracket contest, or if all of the gamers had the identical odds, I might take Alonso to win in gentle of his observe document. However with Rodriguez’s odds practically twice as lengthy, he holds significantly higher worth.

When it comes to first-round matchups, I am unable to not take Rutschman at +175. He and Robert are each newcomers to the occasion and, at 6’2, 230 kilos, the Orioles’ catcher has the body to go toe-to-toe with everybody on this record. It is at all times laborious to foretell how any first-timer will do within the Residence Run Derby. For each Alonso, who wins of their first attempt, there is a Mike Piazza, who appears to be like like a deer within the headlights. So contemplate this a wager towards the unknown amount that’s Luis Robert Jr. greater than a wager on the unknown amount that’s Adley Rutschman.

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